Visibility calculation with WRF model through dew point depression

Abstract

This Research evaluates the effectiveness of the WRF mesoscale model (Weather Research and Forecasting) to forecast visibility in the area comprised by the Artemisa, Havana and Mayabeque provinces. The actual data of ambient temperature and dew point temperature from 10 meteorological stations in the study area were taken as a study sample, with which the dew point depression was calculated, an important variable in this study. With the data obtained from ambient temperature and dew point depression, a Taylor Graph was made for days with the presence of fog, with the presence of mist and without the presence of either of the two phenomena. The correlation values obtained were high, in the cases of fog and mist, generally higher than 0.7, so it was possible to verify the effectiveness of the graph with the real data for the visibility forecast, To check its operation with the model data, two study cases were taken, one in the dry season and one in the rainy season, and the same procedure was carried out. Another result obtained was the correct operation of the model to forecast fog and haze, mainly foe the inland stations, whose correlation values exceeded 0.8, although ambient temperature was overestimated for the two study cases, with lower values such as 2 and 3 °C for the case of the dry period and maximum values of 6 and 7°C for the case of the rainy period, this brought with it differences in the values of the dew point depression obtaining 1.5 as a mean value.